The Sultanate of Oman, Climate Change and Vulnerability

Written By: Chris Govier | Date: 2020

The Sultanate of Oman is located in the southeast of the Arabian Peninsula, with landscapes from rugged mountains to desert plains and rich mangroves. Oman’s ecosystems are varied, presenting a unique opportunity to manage the environment. With an economy that is dominated by exporting crude oil, economic diversification is aligning with Vision 2040 (click through for the 2019 PDF Vision Draft). An area that is to be addressed in Vision 2040 is sustainability and security. Food security is a priority in the GCC. Oman, like many of its neighbours, imports over half of its food to meet the needs of its growing and young population. With climate change and increasing climate variability, it is likely to add increasing pressure to the country’s agricultural sector and increasing reliance on imports.

Climate change is also adding risk to Oman’s economic development due to the potential environmental impacts; such as warming surface temperature. Groundwater pollution and the increase of water salinity are of growing concern for a nation that relies on desalination for most of the freshwater. Furthermore, a range of socioeconomic and institutional factors are adding pressure on Oman’s ability to respond to current and projected changes in climate change. These challenges must be met to respond to climate change strategically.

In the future, Oman will see an average surface temperature increase of +4 C by 2100, a decrease in monthly rainfall, and an increase in mean drought index. While all the model ensembles that have suggested the above data, assume RCP 8.5, the business as usual scenario it is quite possible for these impacts to be much worse as climate feedback loops might have a multiplicative effect as global systems feed into one another.

Food security, economic development and climatic change all influence the vulnerability of Oman into the remainder of the 21st century. The Ministry of Environment and Climate Affairs was restructured by the Sultan, to the Environment Authority as part of an operation to streamline government structure. The Environment Authority is the government institution that is responsible for all climate change-related policy, strategy and communication in the sultanate.

Oman’s economy is primarily built upon the energy sector, with additional revenue arriving from tourism. The Energy sector is inextricably linked to climate change, climate variability and Oman’s economic prosperity. From a global level, ever-increasing energy demand drives anthropogenic climate change, primarily through the emissions of greenhouse gasses. At a local level, Oman is exposed to the contrasting impacts of climate variability and change in energy supply, from breaks in distribution and demand growth. These challenges are not unique to Oman and can have positive and negative consequences.

From a Natural Catastrophe perspective, Oman is vulnerable to flooding, cyclones, sand storms and droughts; with cyclones accounting for over 80% of all-natural hazards occurrences. Catastrophic losses lead to economic, social and environmental challenges. In this image from the World Bank, tracks the centre of cyclones. The centre of these storms is known as 'the eye' and this area generally contains the highest wind speeds, and thus the highest level of damage. The image shows all cyclones from 1979-2019 and the courses they took. With a risk management viewpoint, the four main areas that will increase Oman’s vulnerability are:

1. Increasing Sea Levels and storm surges could increase the rate of coastal erosion – this could lead to the displacement of people, eradication of sensitive ecosystems (both marine and terrestrial) along with
2. Over-extraction of groundwater to meet population growth could lead to saline intrusion into reservoirs.
3. Salinity will increase in wells along with the water used for surface irrigation in agriculture. This will limit the capacity of Oman’s agricultural production.
4. As surface temperatures increase and rainfall decrease droughts will become more severe, however, the frequency of these is still uncertain.

A brief overview for the trends in Oman for the remainder of the 21st century reveals that rainfall in the winter months will most likely be in short sudden bursts that lead to flash flooding. Sand Storms have been particularly bad for Oman in the previous years, caused by summer droughts and summer winds, these are likely to become more frequent. Muscat will continue to be exposed to destructive flooding and storm wave events.